NWP skills for operational meteorologist
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Vinko Šoljan talks about forecasting and nowcasting of deep moist convection, satellite products used, NWP outputs and more.
In this presentation, we will demonstrate the process of forecasting deep moist convection (DMC) at Croatia Control and how satellite products are utilized in this process. This includes large-scale analysis and diagnosis using satellite data, as well as monitoring and nowcasting existing DMC using satellite products and radar data. In DMC forecast we primarily rely on the ingredients-based methodology and NWP guidance.
Georg Pistotnik covers the topic of drylines, shows it's relevance in severe weather development.
Drylines are boundaries separating warmer and drier from cooler and moister air, usually resulting from differential diurnal heating and therefore vertical mixing. The most common and distinct dryline in the Alpine region is the boundary between Foehn winds (dynamically driven) and upvalley/upslope circulations (thermally driven). Thunderstorms often form along drylines and intensify when they move onto their moist side, where CAPE and vertical wind shear are systematically enhanced and favor convective organization. This presentation highlights how station and readiosonde data, high-resolution satellite imagery and even webcam images can be integrated into the nowcasting of drylines and resulting thunderstorms, using some prominent cases of the past few years in the eastern Alpine region.
Lecture slides
Liliane Hofer speaks about prognostic service of Austria, work organization, regional weather forecast specifics such as southerly föhn winds and others.
Various phenomena, some of which are regionally specific, such as southerly föhn winds or precipitation in northern or southern congestion, make the weather forecast in Austria very challenging at times. In addition, the topographically highly structured landscape also results in quite small-scale differences, for example in inversion weather conditions. All this and special customer products are highlighted in this presentation, as well as the basic working environment of the forecasters and, of course, the satellite products used for this purpose.
Lecture slides
Jorge Ponte shows the challenges of being a forecaster, issuing warnings and discusses extreme precipitation event that affected Lisbon.
Extreme rainfall events in December 2022 caused significant losses in Lisbon, Portugal. This presentation examines these events to discuss whether it was possible (or not) to make a better forecast and issue earlier warnings. By analyzing various numerical model products from the preceding days alongside real-time monitoring data (satellite, radar, stations), the presentation will explore the operational forecaster's decision-making process during extreme weather situations.
Lecture slides
Case Study of the pre-convective environment of 19th May 2021 using IASI sounder data.
This Case Study of the pre-convective environment of 19th May 2021 using IASI sounder data focuses on exploring how the use of IASI retrievals added additional value to the forecast of the incoming storm over Hungary.
Ine-Therese Pedersen speaks about difficulties of forecasting icing in the far north.
Weather forecasting in the Arctic is challenging, and the further north you go, the more difficult it can be to meet this challenge. Svalbard is situated between 74-80 degrees north and consists of several islands with high mountains, deep fjords, and large glaciers. The terrain makes it even harder to model and forecast the weather. In addition to cold, snowy weather in wintertime, one of the large challenges is icing in autumn and winter. This has an impact on both roads, animal living conditions, and air traffic. This talk will go deeper into icing in relation to air traffic on Svalbard, mostly connected to the main airport, Svalbard Airport, situated near Longyearbyen."
Pia Isolahtenmaki (stepping in for Robert Makitie) presents how FCI proxy data help in differentiating cloud types in low-cloud conditions.
On the 11th of September an almost stationary frontal system occurred over southern Finland leading to development of a large fog cloud over the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea. The fog later moved slowly over southern Finland, where Finland’s busiest airport, Helsinki-Vantaa airport, is located. The fog cloud that occurred over the Gulf of Finland was hard to spot from SEVIRI images due to different layers of middle and high clouds. When thinking about the future, the question arises, would the FCI have spotted something more in this situation?
Johannes Häkkinen presents forecasting different precipitation types and using satellites together with weather models in aviation.
The presentation will go through different precipitation types, forecasting the precipitation types, and supporting the weather model with satellite images. The precipitation types are estimated from a model sounding by top-down method. Satellite imagery is mainly used for estimation of the cloud top. The focus is on aviation weather and short-term forecasts.
Robert Hausen describes his journey in the Arctic during the MOSAIC project.
The presentation is about the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) from a forecaster’s perspective. As kind of an experience report this talk gives some impressions from the preparation before the expedition started up to the uncertain outcome of Leg 3 of 6 due to the Corona Crisis and other circumstances.
Vojtěch Bližňák presents how the satellite cloud data helps forecasting road surface temperature in Czechia.
The goal of the contribution is to assess an impact of extrapolated cloud cover derived from satellite observations on forecasts of road surface temperature (RST) performed by the road weather model (RWM) FORTE. Based on road weather station measurements and forecasts of the ALADIN numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, which are used as inputs to prepare initial and boundary conditions, the RWM generates a linearly continuous forecast of RST on selected Czech highways. The work will compare the evaluation of RST forecasts generated by two model runs using NWP and satellite-derived cloud cover estimation.
Virve Karsisto shows the road model FMI uses to forecast road conditions.
Finnish Meteorological Institute’s (FMI) road weather model has been in operational use over 20 years. The forecasts help in the road maintenance decision making and give useful information for road users about the driving conditions. Recently, a shadowing algorithm has been implemented to the model to take in to account the shadowing caused by the surrounding objects. This helps to make more localized forecasts, as shadowing can cause great differences in road temperature even between different lanes.
Minna Haikonen explains how FMI collaborates with customers in delivering important warnings.
Finnish Meteorological Institute produces weather services for land traffic and shipping to ensure safety and cost effective planning on everyday decision making for customers and stakeholders. FMI produces wide range of weather services including weather and road weather forecasts, observation services and warnings that can be tailored according to customer needs. One example of these a tailored weather services is a so called pre warning service for rail traffic operation and maintenance which is based on meteorological consultation via email or video conference system all around the year. FMI`s meteorologists monitor weather 24/7 basis and issue pre warnings according to the customer needs. There are several parameters that need to be monitored and the pre warning is issued whenever it seems likely that a predefined threshold will be met. During wintertime these pre warnings are proven to be very important especially before heavy snowfall cases not to mention if there is also low temperatures and hard winds appearing at the same time.