Understand NWP outputs
Vinko Šoljan talks about forecasting and nowcasting of deep moist convection, satellite products used, NWP outputs and more.
In this presentation, we will demonstrate the process of forecasting deep moist convection (DMC) at Croatia Control and how satellite products are utilized in this process. This includes large-scale analysis and diagnosis using satellite data, as well as monitoring and nowcasting existing DMC using satellite products and radar data. In DMC forecast we primarily rely on the ingredients-based methodology and NWP guidance.
Georg Pistotnik covers the topic of drylines, shows it's relevance in severe weather development.
Drylines are boundaries separating warmer and drier from cooler and moister air, usually resulting from differential diurnal heating and therefore vertical mixing. The most common and distinct dryline in the Alpine region is the boundary between Foehn winds (dynamically driven) and upvalley/upslope circulations (thermally driven). Thunderstorms often form along drylines and intensify when they move onto their moist side, where CAPE and vertical wind shear are systematically enhanced and favor convective organization. This presentation highlights how station and readiosonde data, high-resolution satellite imagery and even webcam images can be integrated into the nowcasting of drylines and resulting thunderstorms, using some prominent cases of the past few years in the eastern Alpine region.
Lecture slides
Liliane Hofer speaks about prognostic service of Austria, work organization, regional weather forecast specifics such as southerly föhn winds and others.
Various phenomena, some of which are regionally specific, such as southerly föhn winds or precipitation in northern or southern congestion, make the weather forecast in Austria very challenging at times. In addition, the topographically highly structured landscape also results in quite small-scale differences, for example in inversion weather conditions. All this and special customer products are highlighted in this presentation, as well as the basic working environment of the forecasters and, of course, the satellite products used for this purpose.
Lecture slides
Katarina Katušić talks about Croatian Met Service work principles and schedules, case study and satellite products used during operational shift work.
The Weather and Marine Analysis and Forecasting Sector is a part of the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), and it is in charge of weather forecasts and warnings for the public and numerous companies. Over the years, we have gone through many challenges. Quite recently, during the lockdown, the earthquake severely damaged our headquarters, and even with those difficulties the work did not stop. We also prepare and present weather forecasts for national television. Furthermore, this presentation will cover the usage of weather satellite products in daily operational work.
Lecture slides
Marco Stoll shows the importance of mountain waves in aviation forecasting.
Meteorological information is crucial for flight safety and efficiency. Mountain waves are an example of a potentially hazardous phenomenon for aviation that meteorological watch offices need to monitor and forecast. The typical appearance of the phenomenon in satellite imagery is illustrated, thereby making use of various MSG channels and RGB products. The difficult task of quantifying vertical speeds and estimating the degree of turbulence associated with breaking waves is discussed with the aid of NWP cross sections.
Case Study of the pre-convective environment of 19th May 2021 using IASI sounder data.
This Case Study of the pre-convective environment of 19th May 2021 using IASI sounder data focuses on exploring how the use of IASI retrievals added additional value to the forecast of the incoming storm over Hungary.
In this air quality module, you will learn to respond better to air pollution and Sahara dust events, by learning which resources to use for these events.
Atmospheric composition can be observed using various instruments (satellite and ground-based) and can be analysed and forecasted using numerical models. This training module provides an overview of available online resources that can be used to assess an air pollution or a Sahara dust event. An air pollution event is defined as a time during which the concentration of atmospheric pollutants exceeds air quality standards. In southern Europe, these also include Sahara dust events, which occur mostly in spring and summer, when south-westerly flow transports desert dust from the areas south of the Atlas Mountain range.
Robert Hausen describes his journey in the Arctic during the MOSAIC project.
The presentation is about the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) from a forecaster’s perspective. As kind of an experience report this talk gives some impressions from the preparation before the expedition started up to the uncertain outcome of Leg 3 of 6 due to the Corona Crisis and other circumstances.
Vojtěch Bližňák presents how the satellite cloud data helps forecasting road surface temperature in Czechia.
The goal of the contribution is to assess an impact of extrapolated cloud cover derived from satellite observations on forecasts of road surface temperature (RST) performed by the road weather model (RWM) FORTE. Based on road weather station measurements and forecasts of the ALADIN numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, which are used as inputs to prepare initial and boundary conditions, the RWM generates a linearly continuous forecast of RST on selected Czech highways. The work will compare the evaluation of RST forecasts generated by two model runs using NWP and satellite-derived cloud cover estimation.
Virve Karsisto shows the road model FMI uses to forecast road conditions.
Finnish Meteorological Institute’s (FMI) road weather model has been in operational use over 20 years. The forecasts help in the road maintenance decision making and give useful information for road users about the driving conditions. Recently, a shadowing algorithm has been implemented to the model to take in to account the shadowing caused by the surrounding objects. This helps to make more localized forecasts, as shadowing can cause great differences in road temperature even between different lanes.
Minna Haikonen explains how FMI collaborates with customers in delivering important warnings.
Finnish Meteorological Institute produces weather services for land traffic and shipping to ensure safety and cost effective planning on everyday decision making for customers and stakeholders. FMI produces wide range of weather services including weather and road weather forecasts, observation services and warnings that can be tailored according to customer needs. One example of these a tailored weather services is a so called pre warning service for rail traffic operation and maintenance which is based on meteorological consultation via email or video conference system all around the year. FMI`s meteorologists monitor weather 24/7 basis and issue pre warnings according to the customer needs. There are several parameters that need to be monitored and the pre warning is issued whenever it seems likely that a predefined threshold will be met. During wintertime these pre warnings are proven to be very important especially before heavy snowfall cases not to mention if there is also low temperatures and hard winds appearing at the same time.
Becky Hemingway present ECMWF's Precipitation Type and Extreme Forecast Index products.
ECMWF produces a vast array of global forecast data on a daily basis. In order to make this data useable a large number of products are created and made available to ECMWF Member and Cooperating States and the wider meteorological community via OpenCharts and ecCharts. This presentation will focus on two products which help forecasters in forecasting extreme precipitation, Precipitation Type and the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI). Both products are generally well liked by forecasters and are seen to verify well. The talk will detail how the products are created using the ECMWF Ensemble Forecast System, discuss how to use the products and provide case studies of cold weather events including from the high-latitude regions.