Identify and interpret broad scale, synoptic and mesoscale systems
Christian Herold (DWD) investigates the usefulness of IASI L2 products in nowcasting, detecting and analyzing sting jets in rapid cyclogenesis.
Strong winds southwest of the center of a Shapiro-Keyser-Cyclone are often associated with a cold conveyor jet or a sting jet. The sting jet is a strong mesoscale flow with a very high damage potential. It is a massive challenge for NWP and forecasters to correctly predict a sting jet. The question is, can IASI profiles help forecasters for a better prediction of such mesoscale severe wind events connected with sting jets? In this specific context, some case studies will be presented.
Bryan Guarante (University of Wisconsin) uses a COMET course to explain the usefulness of analysing water vapour images with a goal of assessing the NWP fields.
In dynamically-active regions of the atmosphere, water vapour imagery approximates the same surface as the 1.5PVU height or pressure surface. Because of this, we can take advantage of the WV channels to find areas of mismatch between the NWP and the real atmosphere to adjust our synoptic scale forecasts.
Pieter Groenemeijer (ESSL) presents his findings in using low-level moisture proxy data from polar orbiting satellites at European Severe Storms Laboratory training events.
In preparation for MTG data, ESSL is carrying out a series of expert workshops and Testbeds in collaboration with EUMETSAT. At both event types, the increased capabilities of detecting low-level moisture from geostationary orbit, which the MTG program will enable, have received a high amount of attention. In our presentation, we will discuss a number of convective storm cases that were studied using proxy data from polar-orbiting instruments, such as MODIS. One of the ways to visualize low-level moisture is by depicting the ratio of the 0.91 and 0.85 μm channels with an intuitive color scale. We will discuss to what extent this and other proxies for low-level humidity can be used to anticipate the presence of a crucial ingredient for severe deep, moist convection...
Wilfried Jacobs (DWD) introduces the water vapour channels in the 2022 EUMeTrain Water Vapour Event Week.
The target group of this presentation is participants that are not familiar or do not feel familiar enough for understanding the presentations during the entire week. The first presentation deals with basics of vapour water channels in satellite products. First, the principle of radiation and radiation transfer will be outlined briefly and put in relation to wave lengths of imagers and vertical sounders by considering weighting functions. The second part deals with some examples by using single channels. Finally, corresponding composites (RGBs) and their applications will explained in detail.
Izolda Marcinoniene gives a talk on the synoptic background for strong winds in Lithuania.
In Lithuania, very strong winds (≥28m/s) are usually caused by Atlantic cyclones. Fifty-five cases in 173 sites have been registered during the period 1961–2021. Even a few cases with very powerful winds (>40 m/s) were observed. According to statistics, most events occur during the cold season and bring significant damage. Thus, a short summary will be presented. Additionally, the typical cyclone track and synoptic situation will be shown in this presentation.
Javier Garcia-Pereda and Mate Mile give an overview on the NWC-SAF high resolution wind product and its application.
The “NWC SAF/HRW High Resolution Winds” provides a detailed calculation of Atmospheric Motion Vectors locally and in near real time. It calculates the AMVs considering cloud and humidity patterns in up to seven different MSG/SEVIRI channels (HRVIS, VIS06, VIS08, WV062, WV073, IR108, IR120), together with NWP data and the “NWC SAF Cloud products (Cloud type, Cloud top temperature and height)”.
It considers up to two tracer scales (Basic and detailed), two tracer determination methods (Gradient and tracer characteristics), two tracking methods (Euclidean distance or cross correlation), and two Height level assignment methods (Brightness temperature interpolation method and Cross correlation contribution method). As other AMV products worldwide it also includes a quality control flagging based on the Quality Indicator Method developed at EUMETSAT.
NWC SAF/HRW product can be useful in Nowcasting applications in synergy with other data available to the forecaster: monitoring of low level convergence, divergence at the top of developed systems, or other cases of small scale circulation or wind singularities. It can also be used as an input in analysis and forecasting applications like NWP models. The development and main characteristics of the product are explained with examples, useful for the potential users to know what the product can offer. The validation results related to the latest version on the product (HRW v4.0) are also explained.
The role of the Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) in the modern data assimilation systems is evident nowadays. The AMVs – along with satellite observations – have an important key for our operational ALADIN data assimilation system as well. In the framework of the EUMETSAT SAF High Resolution Winds (HRW) products had been developed by AEMET for Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting purposes. The HRW products provide quasi real time data of AMVs from MSG HRVIS and IR10.8 channels every hour in a day. A collaboration between AEMET and OMSZ have been focused to compare the benefit of the operationally used AMVs (received through the EumetCAST) with the newly processed HRW winds. Recent work was an extensive evaluation and monitoring of the assimilation and forecast system. The impact of the AMV winds was examined using different diagnostic techniques, verifications tools and case studies. The first results are promising regarding the use of the HRW AMV. The statistical scores on the full domain showed neutral or slightly positive impact in most of the parameters and the experiment based on HRW AMV data provided better estimate of extreme precipitation events.
David M. Schultz gives a presentation on the different conceptual models approaches concerning occlusion processes in frontal systems.
This talk presents new conceptual models in cyclone structures and evolutions. How does the large-scale flow in which the cyclone is embedded determine the type of frontal evolution that occurs? How does the air flow through cyclones, and what can this tell us about the possibility for damaging winds at the surface? This talk concludes with general principles for how forecasters can improve their skill through the use of conceptual models in operational forecasting.
Fernando Prates gives a presentation on forecasting the tracks of tropical cyclones (TC). He gives presents the TC products delivered by ECMWF.
In this module the importance of forecasting tropical cyclones (TC) is briefly discussed. An overview is given of the recent developments in the forecast systems at ECMWF with impact on the forecast of TCs, including the recent change in the model’s resolution and the implementation of the Ensemble Data Assimilation. At the present time, any TC formed in the forecast system can be identified using a tracker developed at ECMWF. How does it work and what kind of products that can be derived from it is discussed. Some examples are also presented to highlight the model's ability to forecast the genesis of TCs. Finally the statistics of the forecast performance for TCs is discussed.
Andreas Wirth gives an overview on the NWC-SAF ASII product and its applications, Eunha Sohn presents the NWC-SAF products adapted to the Korean COMS satellite.
PGE10 of the SAFNWC/MSG provides an automatic satellite image interpretation in terms of conceptual models (CMs). Conceptual models are important tools for forecasters in diagnosis, nowcasting and very short range forecasting; they describe a synthesis of typical features in satellite images as well as in other synoptic material (for instance numerical model output parameters) and the physical processes causing them. A CM diagnosis cannot only be used for detection of an ongoing process but also for the determination of the stage of development within this process.
This presentation will focus on the practical applications of ASII by showing examples of analysed synoptic weather situations.
In a second talk, Eunha Sohn from the Korean Meteorological Service will talk about applications of NWC SAF modules such as RDT, CRR, HRW and ASII in KMA, ongoing works and future works related to NWC SAF.
Frans Debie gives a presentation on the development of Rapid Cyclogenesis, their life cycle and the numerical parameters involved.
Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are a group of cyclones defined as synoptic scale low pressure systems that occur in the middle latitudes and are associated with fronts (cold front, warm front and occlusion) and horizontal gradients in temperature and dew point , known as baroclinic zones. Extratropical cyclones are the everyday phenomena which, along with anticyclones, drive the weather over much of the Earth, producing anything from cloudiness and mild showers to heavy gales and thunderstorms. Evolution of these depressions can be recognized in the developing of the cloud systems. These cloud developments are the footprints of physical processes in the upper air. In case of explosive deepening it is called rapid cyclogenesis. Satellite imagery, especially recognition of cloud patterns and water vapour structures, can be a great help for marine forecasters to find the area where these cyclogenesis occurs. The deepening of the depression, where you can expect the strongest wind speeds at sea surface and what will be the distribution of the precipitation are issues which will be covered during the lecture. In general, the lecture will give insight in physical processes which can explain the development and life-cycle of rapid cyclogenesis by using single channel satellite images and RGB-images in combination with NWP model fields.
Izolda Marcinoniene presents 2 case studies on severe thunderstorms over Poland and the Baltic States.
Length: 30 minutes.
Nowcasting of severe convective storms is still one of the most challenging tasks for operational forecasters. Satellite data are very useful in convection nowcasting because they enable a detailed monitoring of the various stages of convection; from the pre-convective environment to specific features on the tops of the mature convective clouds. Also, future MTG system will provide even better tools for convection nowcasting: satellite data with better temporal (every 2.5 min) and spatial resolution.
In this lecture, severe weather cases of 29 July 2012 and 30 July 2013 will be analysed by Izolda Marcinonienė (Lithuanian LHMS), mainly using MSG satellite images and ECMWF data. The first event includes a more expanded North-Eastern European area – from Poland (where the unstable situation started) towards the Baltic States (where the severe weather phenomena developed) to Finland (where they ended). The second event hit only Lithuania, but local very heavy rain reached even the disastrous phenomenon criteria and will be shortly presented as well.
In this training module, you get an overview on the life cycle of Upper-Level-Lows and you will learn more about the impact on local weather.
Upper-Level-Lows (ULLs) are a very common phenomenon in mid-lattitudes. They are usually associated with cold and rainy weather that can last for several days. When they remain stationary over a period of time, the can bring considerable amounts of rainfall locally. This synoptic situation has led in the past to floods and damages in infrastructure as will be show by the example of the Central European Flood in summer 2021.
This training module focusses on the meteorological aspects of ULLs, describes the life-cycle and throws a spottlight on the involved physical processes that accompany this meteorological phenomenon. Each stage of development is exemplified by satellite loops and corresponding NWP parameters. Exercises will help you to check the acquired knowledge.