Weather
Valerie-Marie Kumer tals about the challenges of flying in complex terrain.
Flying in complex terrain is challenging as orographic induced turbulence can lead to unexpected loss of aircraft controls. In order to keep aircraft operations as long as possible actable and safe a skilled turbulence forecast is of vital importance. Since turbulence forecasts are highly dependent on model resolution and parameterization schemes, they do not always hit the scores. With the knowledge of general fluid dynamics and observations regions and onset of hazardous conditions can be specified. Let us explore what we can look at to improve our turbulence forecasting skill.
Roland Winkler talks about the safety and economic impact of wind in aviation.
Despite ever-advancing technology and automation, weather continues to have a major impact on aviation. Weather forecasts in aviation have two important functions. They support safety on the one hand and economic efficiency on the other. As part of this presentation, I would like to take a closer look at the complex subject area that the wind exerts on the approach and departure.
Régis Borde gives an overview on the actual wind products extracted from polar satellites over the world.
Derivation of wind products from polar orbiting satellites has been developed in the 2000’s to populate the high latitude regions where no observation could be obtained from geostationary satellites. Taking advantage of a wider variety of instruments available at Low Earth Orbit, several types of wind information are now produced operationally, and not limited to Polar Regions anymore.
This presentation will give an overview of the actual wind products extracted from polar satellites over the world, and then focus on the EUMETSAT activities which includes the operational production from imagers, the recent development of 3D winds from Hyperspectral instruments, and the preparation of the future Doppler Wind Lidar mission.
Polly Schmederer presents an evaluation of the EXIM product.
With the latest version of EXIM, new NWCSAF products were added to the list of sub-products and a new extrapolation feature, the so-called CTTH filter, was introduced. The CTTH filter allows extrapolating pixels using atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) stemming from the same userdefined layer. This talk presents the value gained by extrapolating the new sub-products with EXIM and the impact CTTH-filter has on the extrapolation of the various sub-products.
Alexander Jann presents the NWC SAF product EXIM, its functionalities and the algorithm.
Extrapolated Imagery (EXIM) is one of EUMETSAT's NWCSAF/GEO products. EXIM kinematically extrapolates satellite imagery and selected NWCSAF products by up to a lead time of 1 hour.
The software developer gives an overview over EXIM's functionalities, the algorithm, challenges faced, and recent developments introduced in the latest version, which is currently under review for being released.
Javier Garcia Pereida presents the NWC SAF product High Resolution Winds and shows application examples.
The NWCSAF/HRW-High Resolution Winds product provides a detailed calculation of Atmospheric Motion Vectors and Trajectories locally and in real time by its users. In this moment, it is able to do this in all regions of the Earth with 5 MSG/Himawari/GOES-R geostationary satellites and 12 NOAA/SNPP/Metop/EOS polar satellites (inside NWC/GEO v2021 and NWC/PPS v2021 software packages).
It is useful in Nowcasting applications, for watch and warning of dangerous wind situations, and monitoring of the general atmospheric flow, small scale circulation and wind singularities. It can also be assimilated in NWP Models and Climate applications, with special interest in its global applicability. In this session, examples will be provided considering all these possibilities.
Irene Schicker taks about wind forecasts needed to efficiently operate wind turbines.
With the increase in wind energy production being fed into the power grid accurate high frequency predictions of the estimate d power for the next hours and days ahead are needed to schedule feed-in rates and secure power grid stability. To achieve this a combination of different kinds of information and data sets are needed. Here, statistical and machine learning methods proved to be a suitable tool. However, a thorough selection of input data is needed as well as considering extreme events (upper and lower tails) in model training and avoiding smoothed forecasts.
A brief introduction into post-processing for wind energy applications using statistics and machine learning, including useful tools/methods/data, will be given.
Sabine Zerobin recaps the steps necessary to plan, construct and operate wind turbines.
A reliable wind measurement is the basis for the successful accomplishment of wind power projects and the profitable operation of wind farms. Therefore, the current presentation gives an overview about the steps that are necessary to develop a wind power project from the green field, starting with a well-defined measurement campaign. Besides constraints originating from the conditions on site, pros and cons of different measurement techniques as well as the corresponding technical standards have to be kept in mind.
Reaching the measurement target therefore means, that sufficient data in a good quality is available to be used for further evaluations andassessments of the regarded site, which are then used to determine whether a project can be realised in terms of profit as we ll as from the technical point of view.
Even after a successful realisation of a project, wind measurements still play an important role, especially when it comes to the verification of the plant performance.
Izolda Marcinoniene gives a talk on the synoptic background for strong winds in Lithuania.
In Lithuania, very strong winds (≥28m/s) are usually caused by Atlantic cyclones. Fifty-five cases in 173 sites have been registered during the period 1961–2021. Even a few cases with very powerful winds (>40 m/s) were observed. According to statistics, most events occur during the cold season and bring significant damage. Thus, a short summary will be presented. Additionally, the typical cyclone track and synoptic situation will be shown in this presentation.
Tomas Pucik gives a presentation on the severe tornado that took place in southern Moravia in June 2021.
Violent (F4 - F5) tornadoes are extremely rare in Europe, which makes it almost impossible for local forecasters or surveyors to build experience with such events. This makes appropriate training for dealing with such events very important. After providing a brief overview of the climatology of tornadoes across Europe, we concentrate on violent tornadoes from three perspectives. The first perspective is typical damage associated with tornadoes of such strength, as documented from a field survey of the Moravian tornado. The second perspective is a contrast of precautions needed to take in such an event compared to the standard set of precautions mentioned in the standard severe wind warnings. The third perspective is an overview of contemporary procedures on forecasting and nowcasting such events compared to the environment and evolution of the 24th June case.
Lukas Tüchler presents a method to detect downdrafts from thunderstorms out of Doppler-radar data.
Convective downdrafts are one of the major thunderstorm hazards which lead to frequent damage. But the prediction of these events is a challenge for the forecasters. Can radar data help in the warning of severe convective wind? Some prediction methods to estimate the potential downdraft wind speed from radar data are discussed.
Wilfried Jacobs discusses summer convection seen in Doppler-radar wind products.
Only summer convection will be discussed. In the first part, basics of the Doppler-products‘ interpretation will be outlined (radial wind components, folding, convergences, divergences, rotations (meso-cyclones) and gusts estimation). Especially, the interpretation of PPI-products (plan position indicator) will be discussed, also in respect to fronts and temperature advection. The second part deals with instructive examples and a short overview of automatically derived nowcasting products at DWD.