Gunnar Noer gives a detailed presentation on the formation of Polar Lows, the climatology and forecasting methods.
Polar lows are small but fairly intense lows that develop during cold air episodes during the winter season in the marine Arctic. The lecture will address some of the basic formation processes, the climatology and traditional forecasting based on deterministic short range models. Recently, Polar Lows are tracked using fine scale EPS based on the UM, and presently the Harmonie 2,5 km model. Results are represented as an estimate of probability for PL tracks, wind and precipitation.