EFI and SOT Products

Competency Framework
WMO Satellite Skills

Presentation 5 in the Warnings Event Week 2017

Length: 39 min

Author: Ivan Tsonevsky (ECMWF)


The Extreme Forecasting Index (EFI) and the Shift Of Tails (SOT) index are two operations products developed by ECMWF for usage in forecasting severe weather. The EFI is based on ECMWF ensemble forecasts and it compares these forecasts with the model climate (M-climate) that is generated by the model re-runs. While the high EFI tells us that the confidence level of a forecast is higher for a certain event, the positive high SOT value tells us that the event would be more extreme than the one with low SOT value. At the end Ivan shows us a few cases and demonstrate how EFI and SOT work together.


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