ECMWF EFI and SOT for forecasting severe weather
Ivan Tsonevsky demonstrates two recent EFI/SOT products for forecasting severe thunderstorms, their interpretation and practical use.
Length: 50 min
Author: Ivan Tsonevsky (ECMWF)
ECMWF provides the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift Of Tails (SOT) as tools to help forecasting anomalous and extreme weather by measuring the difference between the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the real-time ensemble forecast and the model climate (M-climate) CDF. The definition of the EFI and SOT will be presented alongside the M-climate configuration. Verification results and EFI/SOT products will be shown with examples to demonstrate their use and interpretation. Some advantages and limitations of the EFI and SOT will be discussed. Examples focused on the available EFI/SOT for marine forecasting will be given as well. Two recent EFI/SOT products for forecasting severe thunderstorms and their interpretation and practical use will be demonstrated.