Conclusion
The forecast of this weather event was a great challenge for all weather services. Generally a northward movement of the cell complex was expected. The interaction between the convergence line and the foehn was a rare event and lead to the following weather development. Its disastrous destructions of arable land, cars as well as roofs lead to enormous damage as reported in lots of daily papers. Over-all the main question is if there will be more weather events like that. Generally there has to be mentioned that the synoptic situation that day was a very special one. There had been advection of subtropical air masses for several days and this had of course impact on the stratification of the air. When the south component of the upper level flow decreased, because the convergence line gained more and more importance, the cells could shift eastwards. Summing up there will be probably similar synoptic configurations, but if they contain the same potential is rather unlikely.
Working on this project revealed multiple facts:
- There are many great forecast tools that provide good information
- Preparing a forecast always includes time pressure, especially at days like that
- Monitoring the development is the most important thing
- When the wind direction changed, a warning was sent to all customers of ZAMG