Jean Bidlot presents probabilistic forecasting based on ensemble technique to ascertain the probability of extreme weather, including wave parameters.
Length: 45 minutes.
For any operation at sea or in the coastal area, forecasts of the sea state are essential. The quality of those forecasts has steadily improved over the years as attested by the successful forecasts of the many large waves events that affected the Euro-Atlantic coast during last winter. Nevertheless, forecasts of high impact weather can still be uncertain. For this reason, probabilistic forecasting based on ensemble technique should be used to ascertain the probability of extreme weather, including wave parameters, as well as possible alternative scenarios. It is known that freak waves do occur and can result in major damages and losses. Predicting those events is more challenging, nevertheless advances in the theoretical frameworks for those situations have been made and has resulted in new forecasts parameters.