Case Study: 29 July 1997

• Introduction and Conceptual Models for 29 July 1997/06.00 UTC
  • Overview of satellite features and conceptual models
  • Frontal diagnosis
  • Diagnosis of the western cloud feature - Conceptual model "Front Intensification by Jet Crossing"
  • Diagnosis of the eastern cloud feature - Conceptual models "Convergence Cloudiness" and "Cumulonimbus (Cb) and Mesoscale Convective System (MCS)"
  • Diagnosis for 06.00 UTC with help of vertical cross sections
  • Very Short Range Forecast (VSRF) till 18.00 UTC
• Conceptual Models - Diagnosis for 29 July 1997/12.00 UTC
  • Satellite features and frontal diagnosis for 12.00 UTC
  • The western cloud system
  • The eastern cloud system
  • Instability 12.00 UTC
  • Diagnosis for 12.00 UTC with help of vertical cross sections
• Conceptual Models - Diagnosis for 29 July 1997/18.00 UTC
  • Satellite features and frontal diagnosis for 18.00 UTC
  • Upper level features
  • Instability 18.00 UTC
  • Diagnosis for 18.00 UTC with help of vertical cross sections
  • Summary

29 July 1997 - Instability 18.00 UTC

29 July 1997/18.00 UTC - Meteosat IR image; yellow: Showalter index 500/850 hPa, magenta: zero line of Showalter index 500/850 hPa

The Showalter index has negative values in the convective area, but the same considerations still apply concerning the discrepancy between the big scale of the area of high thunderstorm probability and the local scale of the real thunderstorm developments.