Case Study: 29 July 1997

• Introduction and Conceptual Models for 29 July 1997/06.00 UTC
  • Overview of satellite features and conceptual models
  • Frontal diagnosis
  • Diagnosis of the western cloud feature - Conceptual model "Front Intensification by Jet Crossing"
  • Diagnosis of the eastern cloud feature - Conceptual models "Convergence Cloudiness" and "Cumulonimbus (Cb) and Mesoscale Convective System (MCS)"
  • Diagnosis for 06.00 UTC with help of vertical cross sections
  • Very Short Range Forecast (VSRF) till 18.00 UTC
• Conceptual Models - Diagnosis for 29 July 1997/12.00 UTC
  • Satellite features and frontal diagnosis for 12.00 UTC
  • The western cloud system
  • The eastern cloud system
  • Instability 12.00 UTC
  • Diagnosis for 12.00 UTC with help of vertical cross sections
• Conceptual Models - Diagnosis for 29 July 1997/18.00 UTC
  • Satellite features and frontal diagnosis for 18.00 UTC
  • Upper level features
  • Instability 18.00 UTC
  • Diagnosis for 18.00 UTC with help of vertical cross sections
  • Summary

29 July 1997 - Instability 12.00 UTC

29 July 1997/12.00 UTC - Meteosat IR image; Showalter index 500/850 hPa, magenta: zero line of Showalter index 500/850 hPa

According to the image above, the area with the highest probability for thunderstorm development can be located over the Alps and Italy. This is exactly where a big thunderstorm complex has developed. But the area with Showalter indices below 3 units, which means high thunderstorm probability, is much more extended. Therefore for a diagnosis and prognosis of thunderstorm complexes, additional conditions and methods have to be investigated. There will be a separate chapter showing the thunderstorm development from 12.00 UTC onward.