Case Study 14 - 15 June 1998

• I. Initial state 14 June 1998/06.00 UTC: SatRep diagnosis
• Overview of satellite features and conceptual models
• 14 June/06.00 UTC: Frontal Diagnosis
• II.14 June 1998/06.00 UTC - 15 June 1998/06.00 UTC: The development of the front and detailed frontal diagnosis
• VSRF: 14 June 06.00 - 18.00 UTC
• 14 June/18.00 UTC: Frontal diagnosis
• 15 June/00.00 UTC: Frontal diagnosis
• 15 June/06.00 UTC: Frontal diagnosis
• VSRF: 15 June 06.00 - 18.00 UTC
• III. 15 June 1998/12.00 - 18.30 UTC: Unstable situation MCS
• Overview of satellite features at the synoptic scale during the observation period
• The observational part of MCS diagnosis - IR image sequence
• The synoptic environment part of MCS diagnosis - 15 June/12.00 and 18.00 UTC
• IV. Conclusions

VSRF: 15 June 06.00 - 18.00 UTC

Following the development of the frontal system over Eastern Europe we now look at NWP-fields from 06.00, 12.00 and 18.00 UTC on the 15th of June. In Fig. H73 below, a rather slow west-northwest movement of the warm front TFP-zone can be seen over the next 12 hours, whilst the Cold Frontal TFP-zone moves rapidly northward.

15 June 1998/06.00 UTC - Meteosat IR image; yellow: thermal front parameter 500/850 hPa 06.00 UTC, green: thermal front parameter 500/850 hPa 12.00 UTC, blue: thermal front parameter 500/850 hPa 18.00 UTC

The temperature advection (H74) again follows TFP indications. The WA maximum remains very distinct with slow westward movement and slight intensification.

15 June 1998/06.00 UTC - Meteosat IR image; yellow: temperature advection - WA 06.00 UTC, green: temperature advection - WA 12.00 UTC, blue: temperature advection - WA 18.00 UTC

As above the Showalter index (H75) suggests a westward shifting of the Warm Front across Finland.

15 June 1998/06.00 UTC - Meteosat IR image; yellow: Showalter index 06.00 UTC, green: Showalter index 12.00 UTC, blue: Showalter index 18.00 UTC