4th October 2007: 00UTC
In this set of images the total precipitation from the HIRLAM model is pictured. This first picture is shows the 24 hour forecast from output of 3rd October 00UTC. A more closer looks shows dashed red lines that are marking the synoptic areas where convective rainfall is diagnosed/forecasted. Such areas are in this image seen over the nortrh of Spain near Santander, but also to the convective cells (that we saw previous in satellite images) of the eastcoast of Spain near Allicante and Valencia. Values between 10 to 30 mm are correctly forecasted if we compare it to the red shades we see int he enhanced IR10.8 image below.
Meteosat 9: Enhanced IR10.8 - 4 October 2008 00UTC
4th October 2007: 06UTC
Another six hours later. By this time the large MCS that is causing bad weather over the Baleares is about to form. At this stage the forecast shows no indication to it but does show an area with increased potential for rain a bit to the north. We can correlate this area quite well with the MCS that we see int he satellite image on this position.
Meteosat 9: Enhanced IR10.8 - 4 October 2008 06UTC
4th October 2007: 12UTC
The images we see is the result from the 36 hour fourecast of 3rd October 0000UTC. If you would compare the above image with radar or satelliite imagery you would see that the location of this area with intensitiy of rain corresponds perfectly with the location of the large MCS. The cell that was anylsed before as having severe updrafts is also seen here quite extraordinary with values of up to 75 mm.
Meteosat 9: Enhanced IR10.8 - 4 October 2008 12UTC
4th October 2007: 18UTC
Six hours later and the last image of this series. The area with the highest intensity is found slightly to the north of Ibiza. From the satellite images we see however that the highest activity alreday northeast of Mallorca (so with overshooting tops). Be aware that we are looking here at the +42 hour forecast and that such an shift in area with maximum intensity is obvious for the forecast of convective systems!
Meteosat 9: Enhanced IR10.8 - 4 October 2008 18UTC
