Marine Forecasting Course

30 Minutes

Fernando Prates (ECMWF)

Forecasting Tropical Cyclones in the Medium Range

Published: 16 December 2013

In this module the importance of forecasting tropical cyclones (TC) is briefly discussed. An overview is given of the recent developments in the forecast systems at ECMWF with impact on the forecast of TCs, including the recent change in the model’s resolution and the implementation of the Ensemble Data Assimilation. At the present time, any TC formed in the forecast system can be identified using a tracker developed at ECMWF. How does it work and what kind of products that can be derived from it is discussed. Some examples are also presented to highlight the model's ability to forecast the genesis of TCs. Finally the statistics of the forecast performance for TCs is discussed.

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Filed under Keywords:

Tropical cyclones, model, forecast, tracking