Table of Contents


I. Introduction

Short description of the cyclone development and of its consequences. Map of the measured and predicted maximum winds. Evolution of the cyclone on Airmass RGB images.


II. Early development

Analyses of the structure and early development of the cyclone based on ECMWF diagnostic parameters and satellite data. Q-vector and PV diagnostics. Conveyor belts and cyclone-relative flow.


III. Intensification and mature stage

Analyses of intensification and mature phase of the cyclone based on ECMWF and satellite data and conceptual models. Signatures of the cyclone intensification on satellite images (HRV Cloud RGB, Airmass composites). The Shapiro-Keyser cyclone model.


IV. The sting jet question

Discussion on the origin of the strong wind and of sting jet presence. Sting jet conceptual model. ECMWF forecasts of vertical motions and strengthening of wind. EPV diagnostics


V. Cloudiness structure and PBL process

Relationships between the PBL stability, surface winds and low-level cloud structure. ALADIN pseudotemps. Comparison with the severe windstorm of 29 October 2017 in Hungary.


VI. Predictability

How well was the cyclone predicted? Advantages of EPS and EFI forecasts. Character and possible origin of forecast errors and differences between successful and failed model runs.




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